System Change, Not Climate Change
Oops, ‘we’ (climate scientists) goofed. ‘We’ underestimated the rate of global warming. All this wasn’t supposed to happen till the end of the century. IPCC projections have been too conservative. Let’s briefly run through the new scientific data. (Mainly taken from M. Le Page, ‘Global Warning’, New Scientist 17/11/12, pp. 34-39, unless where otherwise stated).
Arctic Ice Loss
2007 the consensus was the Arctic would not be ice-free in summer until the end of the century. At the end of last summer only a quarter of the Arctic was covered in ice, a record low, and the total volume of ice was just a fifth of what it was just three decades ago.
It wasn’t supposed to happen this quickly. Climate models clearly underestimated the rate of change. Older models lacked important details such as the melt ponds on the surface of sea ice that…
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